The cheap debt comes due
“Many CCC issuers locked in low coupons in 2020 and 2021 and now face refinancing with a 10-year Treasury above 5%.”Xponance, October 2026
The Corner
CCC bonds, the riskiest rung of junk, yield 17.86%. BB bonds, one rung below investment grade, pay 2.09% over Treasuries. In 29.8 years of daily data, CCC has never been this stressed while BB was this calm.
- CCC yield
- 17.86% October 30, 2026
- BB spread over Treasuries
- 2.09% October 30, 2026
- BB at its calmest, any earlier day CCC was this stressed
- 2.57% May 18, 1999, the lowest of 1,505 days with CCC at 17.5% or more
Every day since 1996
One dot per trading day: what the riskiest junk yields, against what the safest junk pays over Treasuries. Every earlier time CCC was this stressed, BB paid more than it does now.
Every time CCC yielded 17.5% or more
Each dot is one day from December 31, 1996 to October 30, 2026, 7,475 in all. Orange is October 14 to 30, 2026. The shaded corner is CCC at 17.5% or more with BB under 2.57%: no day before October 2026 landed in it. Hover or tap a dot for its day, or step through the days with the arrow keys.
- Day
- October 30, 2026
- CCC yield
- 17.86%
- BB spread
- 2.09%
- Episode
- 2026
Before October 2026, on every one of the 1,505 days CCC yielded 17.5% or more, BB paid at least 2.57%. From October 14 to 30, 2026 it paid between 1.84% and 2.10%.
- 1998–2003October 8, 1998 to April 22, 2003: CCC yielded 17.5% or more on 1,158 days, up to 29.20%. BB paid 2.57% at its calmest and 7.41% at its widest.
- 2008–09September 16, 2008 to July 22, 2009: CCC yielded 17.5% or more on 223 days, up to 45.02%. BB paid 6.40% at its calmest and 14.68% at its widest.
- 2015–16December 11, 2015 to April 19, 2016: CCC yielded 17.5% or more on 91 days, up to 21.68%. BB paid 3.87% at its calmest and 5.82% at its widest.
- 2020March 18 to May 20, 2020: CCC yielded 17.5% or more on 33 days, up to 19.93%. BB paid 4.99% at its calmest and 8.37% at its widest.
- 2026October 14 to 30, 2026: CCC yielded 17.5% or more on 13 days, up to 18.17%. BB paid 1.84% at its calmest and 2.10% at its widest.
The nearest miss
On May 18, 1999 CCC yielded 18.82%, BB paid 2.57% and BBB 1.37%, the closest any earlier day came to now. A recession followed from April 2001 to November 2001. By October 10, 2002 BB paid 7.41% and BBB 4.03%: 2.9x and 2.9x their May 1999 level. That is history, not a forecast.
Why CCC breaks first
The sellers are forced
“Hedge funds loaded with CCC credits have become aggressive sellers, particularly those that unwisely employed leverage. Selling your good CCCs does little to protect the capital invested in the remaining positions, but it does help deleverage, which the banks demand.”Bruce Richards, Founder and Head of CVC Marathon, on X, November 2, 2026
About half default
On average, 50.43% of the issuers S&P rated CCC/C defaulted within 10 years, across the 1981 to 2024 cohorts. Richards' bet is on the other half: buy the ones that survive.S&P Global Ratings, 2024 default study
The claim, checked
Richards wrote that CCC had never yielded more than 18% while BB traded tighter than +400 basis points. In the ICE data it did, on 475 days between October 9, 1998 and March 22, 2016:
- 1998
- 34
- 1999
- 216
- 2000
- 111
- 2001
- 73
- 2002
- 37
- 2016
- 4
His point survives in a sharper form. CCC has been this stressed before, but never with BB this calm: until October 2026 it never paid less than 2.57% on such a day. His charts show yield to worst and spread to worst; this page uses effective yield and option-adjusted spread of the same ICE indices, so small differences are expected.
Under the hood
Data. ICE BofA index data via FRED, daily, December 31, 1996 to October 30, 2026: 7,475 days with both a CCC yield and a BB spread.
History. FRED now serves these series from November 3, 2023 only. The earlier history comes from archived copies of FRED's own data files; where the two overlap, they match.
The gap. The archived CCC yield ends on August 17, 2022, so the days up to November 3, 2023 have no CCC yield. They are left out, not estimated.
This stressed. CCC at 17.5% or more, just under where it stands now. This calm. BB under the lowest it ever paid on such a day before October 2026.
Episodes. Stress days at most 90 days apart count as one episode, so 1998 to 2003 is one story, not dozens.
Measures. CCC is the effective yield of the CCC & Lower index; BB and BBB are option-adjusted spreads over Treasuries. Recessions are NBER's.
Series: BAMLH0A3HYCEY ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index, effective yield; BAMLH0A1HYBB ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index, option-adjusted spread; BAMLC0A4CBBB ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, option-adjusted spread; USREC NBER based recession indicator for the US. Sources: Bruce Richards (@Bruce_Markets), X, CCC Cowboys (November 2, 2026); S&P Global Ratings (mirrored by S&P Maalot), Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2024 Annual Global Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study (March 27, 2025); Xponance, The Bill Comes Due: Q3 2026 Fixed Income Review and Outlook (October 23, 2026).
Next door: The Cliff, four AI models asked where the market closed, and macro.briefs, the weekly macro read.
RESEARCH NOTES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT A FORECAST.